XAO Indicator still positive

A brief update. The XAO Indicator is still blue but a fall below about 4850 will turn the indicator red. Will keep you posted.

All Ords falls below trendline but XAO Indicator still positive

The All Ords has closed below trendline support - on an arithmetic scale chart. On a semi-log scale chart it is not as bad but is barely holding the trendline. The XAO Indicator though, has remained positive. But, if it falls another 50 points or so, it will change to negative. Will keep you informed. Here's today's chart.

All Ords tests trendline support

The XAO Indicator held blue during this week of declines but the All Ords now sits right on an established trendline. In a somewhat positive sign, the All Ords made a new low today, briefly traded below the trendline and then rallied strongly. We should see a rally for 2 or 3 days or so. I suspect that the strength or otherwise of that move will give an indication of which way this market now wants to go. Here's an updated chart. Click to enlarge.

XAO: Indicator blue, struggles with mid-channel trendline

The XAO Indicator remains blue so the trend remains up but there are some nervous nellies about calling a top in the market. Sooner or later they will be right and given the way the All Ords is struggling with the mid-channel trendline, a correction could come sooner than later. Here's an updated chart.



All Ords continues upward

The All Ords continues on its merry way and now promises to move into the upper half of an upward sloping trend channel which began in mid-2010. At the same time, the XAO Indicator continues to be blue indicating that (since 7 September 2010) its been a good time to be long stocks. Once the All Ords enters into the upper channel, the target would be at least 5200, with 5300 more than just a possibility. And by the look of the charts of some of the big-caps like BHP, RIO, CBA etc, there could be much higher prices to come.
Click on chart to enlarge

All Ords humming along

The All Ords continues to chug along (and up). The XAO Indicator has now remained blue since early September 2010. Stocks have done extraordinarily well in that period - unless you are holding perennial losers like many blue chips. The big movers have been the small caps especially many "penny dreadfuls". This is what this blog is all about. Go long and hold long while the XAO Indicator is blue. When it turns red be very careful. I have tested hundreds if not thousands of indicators over many years and nothing comes close to the guidance provided by the XAO Indicator. And it makes sense. This indicator will turn blue and stay blue when the general market is rising. Most stocks (some more and some less) will rise during this period. Conversely most will fall when the indicator turns red. That's the time to either reduce your holdings or get out of the market altogether (if you wish to avoid a potential roller coaster ride). And here's another tip. Most of the big jumps in price - the takeovers, the profit upgrades, will happen when the indicator is blue. Check for yourself, just look at the dates to the left and see how your holdings performed during those periods.
Here's an updated chart.

Giralia shareholders cash out

A massive +$60 million in value of Giralia shares changed hands today. That's the largest one-day turnover of shares in Giralia ever - by a long way. Volume spikes often occur at the top of the market in smaller companies. Could this be the top for Giralia? This chart illustrates the spike.

BHP weekly breaks trendline on RSI
In yesterday's post I mentioned the BHP weekly chart shows divergence between the price chart and the RSI Indicator. Today, the RSI Indicator broke a trendline which shows there may be further declines ahead. That could mean lower prices for resources generally.

But is RIO leading the way down?
RIO broke its trendline on the RSI Indicator back in December.

XAO Indicator still blue, but . . .

The XAO Indicator turned blue in early September and remains so. Its my experience that the best gains in individual stocks occur when the XAO Indicator is blue. It is also my experience that the penny stocks don't really take off until after the broader market has been rising for a while i.e until the XAO Indicator has been blue for a month or two. The past month or so has seen dramatic rises in the penny stocks. Could we be heading for a blow-off top? Below are three charts. One is the All Ords showing the XAO Indicator, the second is BHP daily and the third is BHP weekly. The BHP weekly is showing divergence on the RSI Indicator. This warning sign rarely fails. If it is correct, BHP is headed for a correction. If BHP falls so will the rest of the market including - eventually - the penny stocks.

A hint of retreat?

I haven't posted for a few weeks because there has been little to report. The XAO Indicator continues to remain blue although there is a hint that a retreat is looming as a minor double top seems to have formed right on the minor retracement level of 76.4% which stopped the market in early November. Here's today's chart. Will keep you posted.

XAO Indicator still blue

The XAO Indicator is still positive and we have had a bounce but you would have every right to remain skeptical about this market. Here's an up to date chart.