The dollar has fallen sharply out of an upsloping wedge which is usually very bearish. It then rallied sharply for 3 days right back to the underside of the trendline - not an uncommon reaction. And here we are. It looks like the dollar's moment of truth. Will it keep going up and resume the long term uptrend which should be good for stocks? Or will it fall away from here? That will probably be bad for stocks. We should know soon enough. Keeping an eye on the dollar should give us a clue as what the stockmarket it likely to do. Here's the chart. Click chart to enlarge
The XAO Indicator paints the daily bars on a chart - blue to show a rising market and red to show it falling. This indicator has been tested over 30 years. When a bar turns blue, 67% of the time the market will move higher before turning red again. When it turns red, it is a time for caution. Sometimes when red, the market can fall substantially.
I am not a financial adviser so you should not take any part of this blog as being financial advice. Observing and interpreting charts is a hobby and so is this blog. The information in this blog is just my opinion, it may not reflect reality. Stock market investing is risky - you can lose all, or potentially more than all of your money given certain market conditions. Not only can you lose a lot of money buying shares, you can also lose a lot of potential profits by selling shares at the wrong time. So please do not buy or sell shares because of information in this blog. Whether you buy or sell shares is your decision as is the decision when to buy and sell. Do not risk any money you cannot afford to lose. Do not risk any money if you do not fully know and understand what you are doing.
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