Oops, market stalls at first resistance

It took a 'bullish harami' to turn around the recent decline and now after only 3 days of advances, a 'bearish harami' (inside day) threatens to stop this little rally in its tracks. If the All Ords closes below today's low on Monday, I'm afraid that we will need to treat that as a resumption of the decline. New lows would not be out of the question if today's low is breached. My guess for a target is around 4690. If today's low holds and the market closes on Monday above today's high, then most likely the market will keep moving higher.

To illustrate my point I am posting 2 charts, one is the current chart of the All Ords and the other shows the All Ords as it stood on 31 August 2010. In both charts the decline was stopped by an 'inside bar' - a 'bullish harami'. In both charts, the bullish harami was confirmed the next day. In both charts, the market rallied for 3 days and then formed a bearish harami on the 4th day. On 1 September 2010, the market powered on up after taking out the high of the inside bar. This time I think it will be different mainly because in September 2010 the rally took out the previous pivot low (shown by blue arrows) but this time it hasn't. Also this time we are in a more significant downtrend (as illustrated by the red bars). By the way, if the market does fall, it could coincide with a timing prediction I saw recently which pointed to a May 26 low. Well, we will find out soon enough. Click chart to enlarge.